Plan G · Plan N · High-Deductible Plan G — Complete 20-Year Analysis
Step 1 — Select Your Health Profile
Your health profile is the single biggest driver of which Medicare plan makes mathematical sense for you. Select the profile that best describes you today.
🟢
Truly Healthy
Zero chronic conditions. Active lifestyle. See a doctor 1–2 times a year.
🟩
Well-Managed
1 controlled condition. Well-managed with medication. 3–5 visits per year.
🟡
Average
1–2 chronic conditions. Typical Medicare beneficiary. 7–10 visits per year.
🔴
High Utilizer
3+ chronic conditions or major illness. Frequent specialist care. 12–20+ visits per year.
🟢 Truly Healthy — What This Means for Your Plan Choice
1–2
Doctor visits/yr
<0.05
Hospital stays/yr
1–2
Lab encounters/yr
<$500
Typical annual OOP
~$115
Monthly savings vs Plan G
HD-G ✓
Recommended plan
Why HD-G wins for you: With zero chronic conditions, your annual out-of-pocket exposure under HD-G is typically well under $500 — far below the $2,950 deductible. You're saving $115+/month from day one, and that gap widens every year. The HD-G math has never been stronger than for someone in your position.
🟩 Well-Managed — What This Means for Your Plan Choice
3–5
Doctor visits/yr
~0.10
Hospital stays/yr
3–5
Lab encounters/yr
$750–$1,500
Typical annual OOP
~$115
Monthly savings vs Plan G
HD-G ✓
Likely best plan
Why HD-G still likely wins: Even with one managed condition, your annual OOP is typically $750–$1,500 — well below the deductible. Premium savings still outpace exposure over time. HD-G crossover vs Plan N typically occurs around Year 5–7. A modest savings cushion removes the deductible risk entirely.
🟡 Average — What This Means for Your Plan Choice
7–10
Doctor visits/yr
~0.23
Hospital stays/yr
8–12
Lab encounters/yr
$1,500–$3,000
Typical annual OOP
~$115
Monthly savings vs Plan G
Nuanced
Depends on situation
The nuanced case: HD-G can still win mathematically over 20 years, but requires a savings cushion for bad years. The crossover vs Plan N typically comes around Year 7–8. Key question: can you comfortably handle a $2,950 expense in a high-utilization year? If yes — HD-G is worth serious consideration.
🔴 High Utilizer — What This Means for Your Plan Choice
12–20+
Doctor visits/yr
0.5–1.0+
Hospital stays/yr
20+
Lab encounters/yr
$3,000+
Typical annual OOP
~$115
Monthly savings vs Plan G
Plan G ✓
Recommended plan
Why Plan G wins for you: With 3+ chronic conditions, you may hit the HD-G deductible every year. The premium savings don't overcome that exposure. Plan G's structure — no deductible beyond Part B, no copays, no coinsurance — provides complete predictability when your care is complex and frequent.
Step 2 — Enter Your Local Premium Rates
These premiums are shared across all calculator tabs. Enter rates from actual quotes in your area. Premiums vary significantly by state — North Carolina is on the low end, New York on the high end.
$160/mo
$120/mo
$45/mo
After entering your rates, use the tabs above to explore each comparison. Your rates will be pre-filled everywhere.
20-Year Cost Summary
Plan G
—
20-yr total
Plan N
—
20-yr total
HD-G
—
20-yr total
HD-G saves vs Plan G
—
HD-G saves vs Plan N
—
Fine-Tune Medigap Assumptions
10%
8%
3%
every 5 yrs
$750
2.5%
2%
7 visits
Cumulative Cost Over 20 Years
Plan GPlan NHD-G
Annual Total Cost by Year
Plan GPlan NHD-G
Year 20 Breakdown (Age 85)
Year-by-Year Detail
Yr
Age
G $/mo
G Annual
N $/mo
N Annual
HDG $/mo
HDG OOP
HDG Annual
G Cumul.
N Cumul.
HDG Cumul.
Monthly Premium Savings (Year 1)
Plan G → Plan N
—
—
20-yr invested value
Plan N → HD-G
—
—
20-yr invested value
Plan G → HD-G
—
—
20-yr invested value
Rate of Return
6.0%
Investment Growth Over 20 Years
G→N investedN→HDG investedG→HDG invested
Summary at Fixed Return Rates
Comparison
Mo. Savings Yr 1
4%
6%
8%
What Could the G → HD-G Savings Fund?
Two grouped panels — the larger G→HD-G savings and the G→N savings — showing what each could become or fund over 20 years.
Insurance Products the Savings Could Fund
How growth projections work: Monthly savings are reinvested as they grow each year. This is a simplified illustration — does not account for taxes, inflation, or fees. Past returns do not guarantee future results. The investment projections shown are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Please consult a qualified financial planner or tax advisor before making investment decisions.
Want to discuss putting your premium savings to work? Chris Prang is a licensed Medicare and insurance broker serving Virginia and beyond.
Based on CMS claims data, RAND/CMS Medicare utilization analysis, and published Medicare research. Your selected profile (from Tab 1) is highlighted.
Category
🟢 Truly Healthy 0 conditions
🟩 Well-Managed 1 condition
🟡 Average 1–2 conditions
🔴 High Utilizer 3+ conditions
Doctor / Outpatient VisitsPrimary care + specialists
1–2 /yr
3–5 /yr
7–10 /yr
12–20+ /yr10–20×
ER VisitsEmergency department
<0.1 /yr
~0.15 /yr
~0.5 /yr
~2.0 /yr20×
Hospital Inpatient StaysOvernight admissions
<0.05 /yr
~0.10 /yr
~0.23 /yr
0.5–1.0+ /yr10–20×
30-Day Readmission RateRe-hospitalized within 30 days
~5%
~8%
~15%
~25%5×
Surgeries / ProceduresPer 100 beneficiaries per year
<3 per 100
~5 per 100
7–9 per 100
10–15 per 1005×
Lab EncountersBlood work, panels, tests
1–2 /yr
3–5 /yr
8–12 /yr
20+ /yr10–20×
Imaging StudiesX-ray, CT, MRI, ultrasound
<1 /yr
1–2 /yr
2–3 /yr
4–6+ /yr6–8×
20-Year Cumulative Encounters
Truly HealthyWell-ManagedAverageHigh Utilizer
Key Insights
Health status is your #1 cost driverA truly healthy beneficiary with zero chronic conditions may have just 1–2 doctor visits and 1 lab draw per year. A high utilizer has 10–20× more encounters annually.
68% of beneficiaries have 2+ conditionsMost people enrolling at 65 already qualify as Average or higher. Only about 1 in 3 Medicare beneficiaries is truly in the healthy/low-utilization category.
Hospital stays are the highest-cost eventsA single inpatient stay averages $17,000+ in total cost. Healthy beneficiaries face less than a 5% annual chance vs 50–100% for high utilizers.
Truly healthy = HD-G territoryA beneficiary with zero chronic conditions may spend under $500 out-of-pocket in a typical year — well below the HD-G deductible — while saving $115+/month in premiums.
Want to talk through which plan fits your health profile and your numbers? Chris Prang is a licensed Medicare broker serving Virginia and beyond.